【VGPreview】新年伊始风平浪静，成人节前暗潮汹涌

Toyger

翻译君12年第一篇VG预测，祝大家新年快乐万事如意了。


The Japan Preview: 1/1/12 Edition (3DS Dominates as all SW Falls)1st
Jan Jacob Mazel, 8 minutes ago, 93 views
The year, like in most other places, goes out with a bit of a whimper in Japan following the massive action that occurs in mid December. January is still a strong month, but individual weeks won't be substantially better than this one for quite some time going forward, and this week saw a huge drop from the previous two weeks in December.

日本的新年，就像世界的其他地区一样，在12月中期狂风骤雨的销售后呜咽着到来。一月虽说是个销售大月，本周的销量与上两周相比却下降巨大，不过1月以后的那些周也不见得会比本周的实际销量更好了。


1) Mario Kart 7 (3DS) - 157,000

2) Monster Hunter Portable 3G (3DS) - 107,000

3) Super Mario Land 3D (3DS) - 90,000

4) Final Fantasy XIII-2 (PS3) - 81,000

5) Musou Orochi 2 (PS3) - 59,000

6) Just Dance Wii (Wii) - 46,000

7) Inazuma Eleven Go Shine / Dark (3DS) - 42,000

8) Kirby's Return to Dreamland (Wii) - 37,000

9) SD Gundam G Generation 3D (3DS) - 22,000

10) Monster Hunter Portable 3 (PSP) - 19,000

11) Shin Kamaitachi no Yoru: 11 Hitome no Suspect (Vita) - 17,000

14) Rhythm Heaven Wii (Wii) - 16,000

14) Mario Kart Wii (Wii) - 16,000

14) Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 (PS3) - 16,000

15) Magician's Quest: Oshare na Mahou Tsukai (DS) - 15,000

In addition to the games above, Jikkyou Powerful Pro Yakyuu 2011 Ketteiban (PSP), Frontier Gate (PSP), Inazuma Eleven Strikers 2012 Xtreme (Wii), and Wii Sports Resort (Wii) should all chart in the final top 20 data for the week.

除了以上的游戏，实况力棒（psp），边境之门（psp），闪电十一人（wii），wii sportR（wii）能够进入前二十。（怎么不是五个？）

As this is still a holiday week, Pokepark 2, Taiko Wii, Mario & Sonic, Wii Party, One Piece: Gigant Battle 2, Nintendogs + Cats, Go Vacation, Family Fishing, Danball Senki, Uncharted Vita, Hot Shots Golf Vita, Kirby: Mass Attack, and Mobile Suit Gundam: Extreme Vs. should all still be seeing decent sales as well on Wii, DS, 3DS, PSP, Vita and PS3. The top 20 likely cuts off at 12,000-15,000 this week, with the top 30 still at about 10,000 units - well above the usual size of Japanese market but nothing like last week either when 32 games topped 20,000 units.

本周仍是个假日周，口袋乐园，太古，马里奥与索尼克，wii party ，巨人战争2，猫狗，Go Vacation，Family Fishing，弹波战机，神海Vita，高尔夫Vita，卡比，高达巅峰对决，这些各个平台上的游戏卖的都不错。本周前20门坎下降了1.2W-1.5W，前30的门槛在1W本，也超过了平时的数据，不过和上周32款超过2W本的销量一比，就只是浮云了。

The major trend to watch this week is how portables behave. In 2006, the final week of the year ended December 31 exactly. DS dropped from about 500,000 in the December 24, 2006 week to 179,000 in the December 31, 2006 week. PSP fell from 138,000 to 66,000 over the same time period. The rate of decline varies a bit year to year though. During the week to December 25, 2005, DS sold 603,000 units and PSP sold 155,000 units. The following week DS sold 410,000 units and PSP sold 114,000 units. With the Japanese celebrating 'Coming of Age Day' this coming January 10th, and an exact alignment for tracking, this week should follow the 2005 pattern (which had Coming of Age Day on January 9th 2006). Theoretically, that means 3DS and Vita will be at about 350,000 and 50,000 units respectively, unless demand overwhelms the drop off, with DS and PSP likely to fall to roughly 7,000 and 67,000 units. Wii and X360 should fall by about one-third also, although PS3 will likely be about flat. Any deviation from the expected roughly 30% (+/- 5%) drop this week for hardware should be taken as a positive omen if demand holds up better than expected, or a bad omen if demand drops off worse than expected.

本周值得关注的是掌机的表现，在2006年的最后一周，统计截止日是31号，ds从前一周的50W下降到17.9W。psp从13.8W下降到6.6W。下降的比率每年都有些变化。2005年时ds是从60.3W到41W，psp是15.5W到11.4W。因为日本的成人节会在1月10号，所以本周的销量趋势会和2005年的一样（那时的成人节是来年的1月9号）。从理论上看，3ds和Vita将分别卖出35W和5W的数字，又或者需求能够压倒下降的趋势（会卖得更多），ds和psp大致将少卖7k和6.7W本。Wii和x360会减少1/3，ps3的销量却不会下降。本周的硬件总销量如果下降 30% (+/- 5%)将会是游戏市场需求增长的预兆，如果大于这个值就是游戏市场正在萎缩征兆。

Some kind of hardware and software rebound may come during the first week of 2012, it has happened in the past in the week ahead of Coming of Age Day, but a rebound notably didn't happen last year. Depending on what happens over the next two weeks, we could be seeing 3DS setting up to sell 1m+ per quarter for at least a little while - DS topped 1m per quarter from Q4 2005 to Q1 2008 without interruption. Peak December week sales typically decline to an average of anywhere from one tenth to one third of the peak on a weekly basis in the January to March quarter and 3DS just had a 500,000 peak in December.

有些软硬件会在2012的首周回弹，这在前几年的成人节前都出现过，不过去年回升并不明显。根据未来两周的情况，我们能够知道3ds能否完成2012第一季度日本销售1M万份。ds从2005第四季度到2008的第一季度，每季度都卖出了1M份。1月到3月平时的销量往往只有12月的高峰的1/10到1/3，3ds在12月的周销量顶峰是50W份。

As far as software goes, not much of note happened for the week. Leggy Wii, DS, and 3DS titles are still dominating the chart. The dearth of major content for PSP late in 2011 as Sony focused on the Vita has amounted to neither platform being well represented. Vita does not look like it will really start to come on as a big software platform until mid-year, as there just isn't much releasing in the short term, and most launch day software has already declined quite a bit. Preorders are pretty lousy for all upcoming Vita titles in the near term, so any chance of strong software sales before the next major infusion of games will essentially be tied to the hardware picking up and lifting existing titles over the next few weeks. Nothing of note stands out for PS3, PSP or Wii software either - all three bases are large enough now that software opening below several hundred thousand units will not push hardware - which means that both could easily be down against Q1 2011 in Q1 2012. 3DS should be the major platform in Japan for at least the early part of 2012 - and possibly much longer - if major software doesn't start coming to Vita or the other rapidly aging platforms.

就软件来讲，本周没什么大新闻，常买的wii，ds，3ds游戏仍然统治着榜单，因为索尼将重心放在Vita上，导致11年下半年psp上大作缺乏，而vita也没有展现出一个好的平台的素质。Vita看起来还没有像真正开始成为一个巨大的平台的样子，短期内有没有什么新作放出，大部分首发的游戏销量也都快降没了，所以可能到今年中期这个局面都难改变。Vita近期的新作预定量都惨不忍睹，所以如果Vita想要什么大作和游戏狂潮出现的话，就需要在下面几周拉动硬件销量，并使那些首发软件的销量更加好看些（就是嘛赶快降价好入手）。ps3，psp和wii上也没什么大新闻，这些主机的基数都很大，所以除非有什么游戏能卖好几十万份，不然也没法带动硬件的销量上升。这意味着2012的第一季度销量，应该会弱于11年同期。至少在12年的前期3ds会是日本游戏的主要平台，如果vita和其他老年期的平台上没什么大作发售的话，这个时间段可能会更长。