VG神棍日本销量预测：二进制领域称王，三大叔刷榜，新老婆暴死？

Toyger

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Software sales have picked up a bit this week in Japan. Although none of the new games topped 100,000 units in their first week on the market, several new games did top 50,000 units which is a fairly strong result in the absence of one or two very strong sellers. Major 3DS games from late 2011 have also picked up a bit, suggesting a decent hardware lift for the platform this week in Japan as New Love Plus and Thearhythm Final Fantasy both performed adequately for Konami and Square-Enix.

本周日本的软件销量开始有所好转，虽然市场上的新游戏没有突破10万张的，但是有数个新的游戏达到了5万张以上，对于没有一两款特别具有吸金能力的游戏的本周来说这已经是很强大的数据了。从2011年底的以后，主要的3DS游戏也开始有所崛起，本周的可乐妹的新爱相随和SE的最终幻想节奏剧场扛起了带动硬件的大旗。


1) 二进制领域 (PS3) - 77,000

2) 最终幻想：节奏剧场 (3DS) - 64,000

3) 新爱相随 (3DS) - 57,000

4) 马里奥赛车 7 (3DS) - 28,000

5) 超级马里奥大陆3D (3DS) - 22,000

6) 怪物猎人 3G (3DS) - 21,000

7) 战国无双：3Z (PSP) - 18,000

8) 生化危机：启示录 (3DS) - 14,000

10) 铁拳3D：特别版 (3DS) - 12,000

10) 重力眩晕：失足少女 (Vita) - 12,000

12) 舞力全开 Wii (Wii) - 8,000

12)幻想水浒传：百年交织 (PSP) - 8,000

15)极限脱出ADV：善人死亡 (3DS) - 7,000

15) 仙境传说：奥德赛 (Vita) - 7,000

15) 怪物猎人携带版 3 (PSP) - 7,000

In addition to the games above, Inazuma Eleven Go (3DS), Armored Core 3 (PS3), Wii Sports Resort (Wii), Photokano (PSP), and Rhythm Thief & The Emperor's Treasure (3DS) should end up in the final top 20 data for the week.

除了上述的游戏外，闪电十一人（3DS），装甲核心3（PS3），Wii Sports Resort（Wii），写真女友（PSP），和节奏怪盗（3DS）也会出现在前20位

With the new software releases for the week, 3DS software has roughly doubled over last week, which will likely lead to a small hardware push. Even without a hardware push, 3DS will top 5m units in Japan this week after launching late in February 2011. That means the system has topped 5m units in its first year. The only systems to ever top 5m units in a single year in Japan since 1990 are DS and PS1. GBA, PS2, Wii, GB, PSP and SNES all topped out at around 4m units per year before dropping. N64, PS3, Saturn and others all topped out at around 2m or less in a year.

与上周的软件相比，本周3DS软件大致比上周增加一倍，这可能会导致一个硬件小高潮。即使没有本次的硬件增长，3DS也将在日本突破500万，这可能会稍早于2011年2月发售的时候。这意味着3DS已经在第一年就达到了500万的销量。自1990年以来单年在日本过500万的游戏机只有DS和PSone。GBA，PS2，Wii，GB，psp和SNES都只有400万左右，而且这些顺序是依次下滑的。N64，PS3，土星和其他所有游戏机第一年在大约200万或不到。

As a point of comparison, 3DS is only 2.85m units behind PS3, a system on the market for about five years and three months, after launching the week after PS3 had built a 6.35m base in Japan. It is thus entirely possible that 3DS will pass PS3 by the end of the year, which bodes very well for its future. Passing larger platforms, like Wii or PSP is still a bit uncertain, but again, those platforms never topped 5m units in a year, so it is fairly likely that 3DS will be at least as big as Wii in Japan (13m+) and it could be bigger than PSP too (19m+).

作为比较，3DS现在落后上市五年零三个月的PS3的差距只有285万台，而在发售的那一周在日本与PS3的差距是635万台。因此，3DS将在年底日本总销量超越PS3这也是完全有可能的，按照现在不错的势头。对于超越这些更大的对手，像Wii或者PSP，则有点不太明朗，不过话说回来，这些平台从来没有一年超过5百万台。所以3DS至少在日本会比Wii（1300万+）多，甚至也会比PSP（1900万+）多，这都是有可能的。

Vita, as a point of comparison, looks like it will be at 575,000 units in Japan through 10 weeks on the market. PSP launched in late 2004 (compared to Vita's late 2011 launch), but reached 600,000 units in six weeks. DS sold only 3.9m units in its first year on the market, compared to 5.0m for 3DS, even though DS was 750,000 units ahead of 3DS through ten weeks, so it will be interesting to see if Sony will consider a large price cut to get Vita back to at least PSP numbers. At the moment though, 3DS is tracking to have an 8-10m base in Japan by the end of 2012, while Vita might get to only 2m or so. In comparison, at the end of 2005, due to launching at the same time, DS was only at 5.6m in Japan to 2.7m for PSP.

再来看看作为比较的小薇酱，看起来它将会达到575,000台，而它在日本市场已经发售了10周了。同样也是在2004年底推出的PSP（作为比较的Vita是在2011年底推出的），但在六个星期达到60万台。DS第一年只卖出了390万台，这可以和3DS比较一下，即使DS达到75万台的时间要早于3DS只通过了十个星期。所以也许这将是一件很有意思的事情，如果索尼将考虑让小薇大幅降价，至少能使销量达到和PSP一个样。就算如此，3DS在2012年底在日本的销量有可能达到800万甚至1000万以上，而小薇可能只有200万左右。相比之下，在2005年，由于推出时间相同都是在年底，DS是只有560万，而在日本的PSP则有270万。

Working on that data, and recognizing that Nintendo's share of software sales on DS was far greater than Sony's share on PSP, it made sense for publishers to support both platforms well, as the software markets looked to be close theoretically. However, once DS had solid Nintendo support and third party support in 2006-2007, it sold like nothing ever has in Japan - 15.6m in two years (150,000 per week on average for two years), while PSP was blunted to only 5m. If 3DS has a larger lead on Vita a year end 2012 than DS had on PSP at the end of 2005, say 9.2m to 2.2m rather than 5.6m DS systems to 2.7m PSPs, a similar thrashing could happen for a year or two, with 3DS topping Vita by 2:1 to 5:1 (in weeks both have been out, 3DS has topped Vita by a 3:1 margin). Publishers would presumably have an even harder time making Vita a major platform than they did with PSP though, as the Vita should launch slower than PSP in the West, as it has in Japan, even as development costs have gone up, making profitability much harder.


根据对以上数据的分析，我们可以认识到，任天堂DS上的软件销售中所占的份额远远超过索尼的PSP上的份额，游戏商为了同时支持这两个平台，也使软件市场从理论上看上去很接近。然而，一旦DS依靠2006-2007年任天堂坚实的第一方和第三方支持，它的售出份额则达到了日本历史上从未达到的恐怖成绩 - 在两年内1560万（两年平均每周150,000），而PSP则被减弱到仅500万。如果3DS和小薇的差距将会在2012的年底比DS和PSP上在2005年底差距还要大，也就是说如果真达到了920万比220万这样的数据，要远远大于560万比270万的数据，日本市场恐怕会重现当年的事件。3DS与VITA的差距也不是2:1，而是5:1（双方在卖出相同的周进行对比，差距已经超过了3:1）。游戏商应该很难再将PSV作为一个主要的平台，甚至不如PSP，VITA在欧美的推出速度也要慢于PSP，因为它在日本它开发成本上升，使盈利更难。

The other point to watch with 3DS is how it sets up the Wii to Wii U transition. Japan definitely became very Nintendo centric from about December 2005 to December 2008 when the DS, and then Wii had steady streams of innovative software. As the innovative software dried up, 2009-2010 moved to roughly parity between Nintendo and Sony for consoles and closer to it for portables, and then in 2011 PSP and PS3 topped DS and Wii for the first time ever (although 2011 was really a great year for Nintendo portables too, they sold 5.0m 3DS and DS systems in Japan vs. 2.5m PSP and Vitas for Sony). The portable market has definitely moved away from parity since the 3DS launched, despite the Vita as PSP + Vita in early 2012 are trending a bit below PSP by itself in early 2011, and PSP only sold 2.0m in 2011 - so it will be interesting to see if the console market corrects backs to parity or to Nintendo with the Wii U.

现在3DS的另一个看点是如何能够帮助wii到wiiu之间的过渡。可以肯定的是日本现在已经成为以任天堂为中心，从2005年12月至2008年12月时的DS，然后Wii的创新软件的稳定销售。作为创新的软件干涸的2009-2010年，重心开始在任天堂和索尼之间徘徊，而且更接近与索尼的掌机，然后在2011年PSP和PS3首次销量超越了DS和Wii（虽然2011年是一个真正的伟大的任天堂掌机之年，他们卖的3DS和DS掌机共售出500万而PSP和VITA则只有250万）。便携式掌机市场从3DS推出以来逐渐走向平稳，尽管在2012年初的PSP+vita的销量还不如2011年初的PSP，而PSP在2011年只卖出200万—所以这将是非常有趣的，如果游戏机市场在任天堂的WIIu的带领下走向平稳。