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Results for Sony's October-December 2011 business have arrived. Sony had announced at its half year financial briefing that the company had lost 42.5b Yen ($558m) from April to September 2011 on revenues of 3.06T Yen ($40.2b) . Through December 2011, Sony announced that nine-month revenues came to 4.89T Yen ($64.25b) with a loss of 201.5b Yen ($2.65b). Quarterly losses were 159b Yen ($2.038b), on revenue of 1.82T Yen ($23.370b) - revenue was down 17% year over year. Sony's most recent expectation for the year to March 2012 was for 6.5T Yen ($85.4b) in revenue with a 90b Yen ($1.18b) loss. With the December data now available Sony now expects to generate 6.4T Yen ($84.1b) in revenue with a loss of 220b Yen ($2.88b loss) for the year.
During the December quarter, Sony shipped 6.5m PS3s, 0.5m Vitas (reported previously), 2.4m PSPs, and 0.9m PS2s. From January to December 2011, Sony shipped 14.1m PS3s, 7.6m PSPs, 4.7m PS2s, and 0.5m Vitas. Lifetime to date shipments through December 2011 stand at 0.5m for Vita, 62m for PS3, 75.4m for PSP, and 154.4m for PS2.
Sony previously projected to ship 15m PS3s, 6m PSPs, and 4m PS2s. The company now expects only 14m PS3s. No change was announced for the other forecasts, although PSP will probably come in around 7m for the fiscal year.
Software shipments for Sony's platforms were also revealed for the quarter. PS3 software shipments were 66.2m in the December quarter, easily the biggest Sony platform at the moment. In the same quarter, PSP software shipments were 11.4m, while PS2 software shipments were 2.5m. No Vita software shipment figures were given.
Lifetime to date software shipments now stand at 568m for PS3, 323.7m for PSP, 1536m for PS2. During January to December 2011, PS3 software shipments were 159.6m, PSP software shipments were 36m, PS2 software shipments were 8.9m. Sony had projected software shipments to reach "about the same" volume as the 210m games shipped in the March 2011 year for the March 2012 year. The forecast was not changed.
Looking at the PS3, PSP, and PS2 data from 2010-2011, it is pretty clear why Vita arrived - the company is facing considerable pressure to keep PS3 hardware and software rates strong as PSP and PS2 rapidly decline. The PS3 will see a software decline soon too, going by its purchasing rate fall off per average user. This is also the second year in a row Sony will miss its 15m PS3 projection, coming in at ~14m both years despite Move and a price cut. The all time 12-month high for PS3 remains 14.6m in the year to September 2010 after the price cut to $300, the Slim, and at the start of the Move launch.
Below, SW is total software shipped in the calendar year, HW is total hardware shipped in the calendar year, and Purchase is the average number of games purchased per user (calendar year SW shipments / total hardware at year end).
SW / HW / Purchase 2011 2010
PS3 159.6m / 14.1m / 2.57 147m / 14.4m / 3.07
PSP 36.0m / 7.6m / 0.48 44.8m / 7.7m / 0.66
PS2 8.9m / 4.7m / 0.06 18.9m / 6.9m / 0.13
Vita (???) / 0.5m / ??? ---------------------------
Total 204.5m+ / 26.9m? / ~0.70 210.7m / 29.0m / 0.79
Vita is really the key here going forward in the next 18 months. PS3 purchasing rates should be at about 1.8 - 2.2 games per user in 2012. That should be the last strong year for PS3 now that Sony has exhausted most of its hardware lifting mechanisms (PS3 increased by 3% in the 2011 holiday quarter, despite a 17% price cut in August, with further cuts by retail throughout the holidays - $200 with a game at US retail, and despite plenty of major games). We also know a major price cut isn't coming to revive PS3 either when Sony is going to post a $2b+ loss, its fourth straight annual loss in four years.
If Vita does not take off as a software market in 2012 - and 3DS only was about a 40m market in 2011 with huge hardware sales, Sony could be looking at a 2012 where PS3 is a 150m market, PSP is a 20-25m market, PS2 is a 5m market, and Vita is anything from a 15-30m market or possibly worse - Sony isn't even giving Vita software figures (although that is partly due to the digital nature of the platform).
The total software figures won't be bad for 2012, compared to where Sony has been in its PS3 era, but when the PS3 purchasing rate falls to 1.2 - 1.7 games per user in 2013, Sony could be looking at a bad situation based on the Vita trajectory: PS3 (110-125m), Vita (30-40m), PSP (15m), PS2 (2m) - and those are bad figures. If that is the case, PS4 will need to arrive to offset the three declining platforms - and that's why PS4 should be expected within 18 months or so, even though it won't reverse the coming decline immediately. This is particularly true if X720 / Wii U are established by late 2013 already - new platforms typically cause purchasing rates on older platforms to deflate rather quickly - the biggest single year drop for PS1 was when PS2 released, the biggest drop for PS2 was when Wii / PS3 released. |
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发表于 2012-2-3 14:32